Campaigning for the first time as an independent, member for Barwon Roy Butler is quietly confident his track record over the past parliamentary term will be enough to get him across the line on March 25.
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The Mendooran local was voted to represent the state's largest seat in 2019 as a member of the Shooter's, Fishers and Farmers party. But, Mr Butler walked away from the Shooters last year amidst party room conflict and is running for reelection as an independent.
"I think the Nationals thought because I don't have a party machine that it would be a disadvantage," he told the Daily Liberal.
"But we've had so much support - I'm heading into Bourke and there's people there who've been asking me daily for corflutes to put up. And these people won't just be putting signs up but they'll also be on the polling booths on election day and during pre polls.
"I've actually got more volunteers this time around than I had in 2019."
Running against Mr Butler in the seat this year are White Cliffs grazier and former Country Womens' Association president Annette Turner for the Nationals and Narrabri school teacher Joshua Roberts-Garnsey for Labor.
Support worker and anti-coal seam gas activist Pat Schultz will also make a bid for the seat for the Greens.
Noticeably absent from the campaign thus far is the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party who seem unlikely to put up a challenger for the seat against their former member.
"It would be a bit of an insult to take an electorate that's 44 percent of the state and stick up a candidate at the last minute, who has no chance of getting around the electorate or getting the printing done that they need done in the next two weeks," Mr Butler said.
"It's hard to see how you could seriously put up a candidate now."
Without the backing of a party this year, Mr Butler is relying on his own track record as an advocate for the community during times of crisis and in securing funding for local projects to drive his campaign.
"These four years have probably been one of the most challenging political terms in the history of the NSW parliament. We've had the pandemic, a mouse plague, floods, fires. We've had it all and we've come through that very well," he said.
"During COVID-19 I had a massive amount of success in getting health orders changed as well. There were ten times we got the health orders changed through Brad Hazzard's office because they just didn't work in rural areas."
"And, we've gone from in the 2016 to 2017 financial year where the electorate specific funding for Barwon was $132 million - fast forward to this financial year we're up to $907 million. It's a massive increase."
"I like to think I've done enough over the last four years for people to put me in for another four years."
Mr Butler said part of his strength as a member of the crossbench will be his ability to work with whichever party forms government after the election to deliver outcomes for the community.
"A strong crossbench is really good for democracy. We've seen candidates who - in their election campaign - will make all sorts of statements and commitments and then when they get to parliament they just do what they're told and toe the party line," he said.
"For example in Dubbo, Dugald Saunders was at a candidate forum in Mudgee and is on camera saying he will fight tooth and nail to stop coal seam gas mining. Then, he gets elected, and every opportunity he has to do something he votes with the government and votes it down."
"We don't know who's going to form the government. And in a minority government the crossbench will be pivotal in whoever forms government getting their business done, so they'll need me to pass legislation."
Should he win re-election Mr Butler said health is at the top of his list of priorities.
"Already we're seeing the government bypass some of those recommendations by announcing the new rural health strategy - recommendation 37 was to review the prior one and publish the findings and recommendation 38 was having consultation."
Improving education outcomes for students in rural communities is another objective for Mr Butler after speaking with voters across the electorate.
"The current minister hasn't set the world on fire with her response to problems like Walgett Community College. We've tried over the four years to keep raising this with her," he said.
"You talk to the community member out there and they have a good grasp of what the problems are but the minister just doesn't seem to be responding to what their concerns are."
In the last state election in 2019, Mr Butler earned just under 33 percent of the primary vote, taking the seat out of Nationals hands for the first time in 70 years. On a two-candidate preferred basis, Mr Butler beat Nats candidate Andrew Schier 56.6 percent to 43.4 percent.
Mr Butler says he has received a positive reception from all the communities he's visited and - although he doesn't have polling data to back it up - is optimistic that his primary vote has risen since 2019.
"What I've noticed is that my competitor's corflute signs are on trees but not on many houses or businesses. A lot of my signs are on houses and businesses, which is a different kind of endorsement," he said.
"It's a personal level of endorsement where people are saying to the world 'I'm supporting Roy'. It means those people have a level of investment in your success."
"It's very heartening. My team and I didn't expect the response we got."
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