Responses to just five questions would significantly improve police's ability to identify domestic violence victims who are at high-risk of repeat victimisation, a new study has found.
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On the basis of its project, the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR) is advocating its proposed risk assessment tool could help to reduce domestic violence by connecting more high-risk victims with appropriate services.
The rate of domestic assaults per 100,000 population within the Dubbo Regional Council area was almost three times the state rate in the year to September, BOCSAR data shows.
In some western NSW local government areas it was worse - and had barely budged in the past two years.
BOCSAR has taken a new look at risk assessment for the offence.
Past research has shown that the NSW Police's 30-question Domestic Violence Safety Assessment Tool (DVSAT) is a poor predictor of repeat intimate partner violence; performing little better than chance, BOCSAR contests.
BOCSAR's study identified a small set of variables that could be used to more accurately predict future intimate partner violence.
The five best performing indicators were:
- the victim's history of domestic violence reports
- the perpetrator's history of domestic violence convictions
- pregnancy and new birth
- victim's self-perception of risk
- the perpetrator's misuse of alcohol or drugs.
BOCSAR reiterated domestic violence was "a major health, welfare and criminal justice issue".
In 2018 NSW Police recorded nearly 80,000 incidents of intimate partner violence (IPV) in various forms, BOCSAR reports.
Among victims who come to police attention, more than a quarter experience a new IPV incident within 12 months, it says.
"Accurate risk assessment by police is essential to prioritise domestic violence services for victims who are most in need," BOCSAR executive director Jackie Fitzgerald said.
"Our study proposes a brief risk assessment instrument which is both easy to implement and which significantly outperforms the current tool.
"Adopting such a tool could help to reduce domestic violence by connecting more high-risk victims with appropriate services."
There were 603 incidents of domestic assault recorded in the Dubbo Regional Council area in the year to September, BOCSAR data shows.
At a rate of 1122.5 per 100,000 population, it was almost three times the state rate of 400.9.