If there's one thing we've learned over the past decade of revolving door politics in Canberra, it's that once leadership speculation begins it rarely ends without a successful coup.

For challengers it has always been a case of if at first you don't succeed, try, try again.

For that reason, no one could possibly think that Tuesday will be the last time Barnaby Joyce attempts to usurp Mr McCormack and return to his former job.

It's just a matter of when.

One factor that will help decide just how soon that next challenge comes will be the result of Tuesday's ballot and if the Nationals want to present as a party united then they have done themselves no favours.

When party whip Damian Drum announced the result of the ballot - that Mr McCormack was the victor - he did not reveal the numbers each candidate received (apparently in line with party protocols).

That simply allowed for rampant speculation with some commentators claiming Mr McCormack prevailed by just a single vote, 11-10, while some of Mr McCormack's supporters reportedly claimed it was as clear-cut as 14-7.

Only those who counted the votes might know for sure but even leaving room for such speculation can only damage Mr McCormack's hold on the leadership going forward.

Despite a good showing by the Nationals at last year's federal election, Mr McCormack has never captured the public's attention in the way that Mr Joyce has.

But the question their colleagues must ask themselves each time there's a spill is whether that's a good or a bad thing.

As is the case with Pauline Hanson, the fact Mr Joyce is widely recognised does not mean he is widely liked.

But, as is also the case with Ms Hanson, the support he does have is well rusted on and it must be tempting for Nationals MPs to return him to the top job so he can join them on the campaign trail next time round. Wherever Mr Joyce goes, journalists and photographers follow.

A [narrow] majority of Nationals might have believed Mr McCormack was the safe choice on Tuesday, but if the polls turn against them then the dangerous choice might become more appealing.

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