THE National Party might have won the seats of Murray and Cootamundra, but the results are cause for relief rather than celebration.
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The swing against the Nationals’ vote in both seats, following on from the disastrous Orange by-election, must be deeply concerning for the party.
In Murray, the swing against the Nats was just shy of 20 per cent. In Cootamundra, which candidate Steph Cooke won quite convincingly, the swing was still about 15 per cent away from the Nationals.
The Nats have tried to put a positive spin on these results.
They can argue they still won the seats despite the by-elections coming at arguably the Coalition’s lowest ebb.
And they can argue the victories give them a solid foundation to repair the damage over the next 18 months before the 2019 state election.
Now, there is nothing wrong with taking such a position publicly.
However, if these results do not trigger some serious soul-searching, then there will be trouble down the track.
After all, these were two of the state’s safest seats that have been brought right back into play due to a voter backlash too severe to be ignored.
The Coalition, which has been in power since 2011, is clearly on the nose with large swathes of the NSW population.
The government, and more particularly the Nats, face a significant challenge from the Shooters, Farmers and Fishers Party (SFF). The SFF has already claimed similar results in a full election would give it six more electorates.
Liberal leader Gladys Berejiklian and Nationals leader John Barilaro have a tremendous challenge ahead of them to secure a third term.
The forced council mergers, the greyhound ban debacle, the rising cost of electricity, the questionable management of our health services – these are all issues still bubbling away furiously. If the Coalition’s leadership team thought they were through the worst of the storm over the mergers, then the by-election results prove otherwise.
The biggest swings against the Nationals occurred in booths in areas that have been subjected to forced mergers.
These election results do not signal the end of this issue. Rather, with the Nationals’ grip on two once-safe seats now significantly loosened, it looms large on the horizon in 18 months’ time.