Last month's Fairfax/Reachtel poll had the Coalition and Labor at 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis – a four percentage point shift away from the government compared with the March 2015 election result.

More astonishing was the preferred premier result which showed opposition leader Luke Foley pipping Baird by 51-49.

Thursday's Newspoll confirmed the two-party preferred figures with a result of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition.

While there is a huge gap on the question of preferred premier – 42 to 24 per cent in Baird's favour – a significant 34 per cent remain uncommitted, giving Foley every opportunity to win them over

Far and away the most devastating numbers for the government were those rating Baird's performance, which have slipped into negative territory for the first time.

It's no secret that the government is in a rut. In recent weeks there has been a lot of focus on the decision to ban greyhound racing from July next year, amplified by a looming byelection in Orange which has the Nationals under pressure.

But it's obvious that the problem is far more widespread than that single issue which only directly affects a relatively small number of people.

The real problem for the government is that the decision has strengthened a particular view that it is governing without listening – one set in train by other contentious decisions such as council amalgamations and the lockout laws.

This in turn is being tightly associated with Baird's personality – the clean-living Christian from Sydney's northern beaches, who is determined to do what is right, no matter what.

So with a little over two years until the next election, the government is in great danger of losing the essential element that helped it into power in the first place: trust.

The answer to whether the Baird government's unpopularity has metastasised or is it confined to its leadership is a difficult one.

Has Baird become so tainted by the unpopular decisions that have been made that no amount of rehabilitation can be effective while he is at the helm? Or is it more a collective unpopularity that can only be reversed by a whole of government response?