Stocks are expected to tumble across the world on Monday as investors seek out safe havens in the wake of Friday night's terrorist attacks in Paris.
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With sentiment already weak before the atrocity, equity markets – starting with Israel's on Sunday night Australian time and followed by Australia and the rest of Asia on Monday – are widely tipped to sell off as investors shift into traditionally less-risky assets such as the US dollar, Japanese yen, government bonds and gold.
Futures pricing before the Paris attacks already had the S&P/ASX 200 opening below 5000 points on Monday, from Friday's 5051.25 close, for the first time since late-September.
The fall-out from the weekend attacks in the French capital would only exacerbate what was already a gloomy view of global macro-economic conditions and markets, analysts say.
The slowdown in China, and the emerging threat of mounting bad loans in its banking system, has been weighing on global markets since the country's stock market plunged in June and August. As the world's second-biggest economy makes the transition from exports and infrastructure investment to a more consumer-driven growth market, there are fears that commodity prices still have further to fall despite years of decline.
Reflecting this, the Bloomberg Commodity Index on Friday touched its lowest point since 1999.
"Recent Chinese domestic activity indicators contain worrying signs for commodities," said ANZ Banking group senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes.
"Growth in industrial production and fixed asset investment both fell, year-on-year, in October. Even more worrying was that steel and electricity production also remained weak in October."
Even in the United States, where the Federal Reserve is poised to begin lifting interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, data continues to suggest that the post-global financial crisis recovery remains patchy.
"Investors were already nervous leading into the weekend – we saw the Dow [Jones Industrial Average] off 400 points in the last two trading sessions on concerns about global events," said Peak Asset Management executive director Niv Dagan.
Poor sales
"Retail sales [in the US] were poor; also investors are very nervous about when US interest rates will rise – but the Paris attacks exacerbate the nervousnesss of investors.
"What we'd expect is probably the market to gap down on Monday, similar to what we saw in August when there were rising concerns about China."
Now, as Western nations become increasingly embroiled in yet another messy Middle East conflict, there is a growing sense that cities across Europe, as well as the US, will never be completely safe from lone wolf or co-ordinated attacks capable of wreaking social havoc and undermining consumer and investor confidence.
"The hard fact is that we live in an age of systemic disorder," wrote Philip Stevens, a senior commentator at the Financial Times.
AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver agreed the Paris attacks would strengthen what had already been a growing risk aversion among investors. However, he said the impact on the Australian market would probably be short-lived.
"In terms of the impact on financial markets, there is no doubt that the attacks in Paris will contribute to short term-investor nervousness," he said.
"But the experience with various Al-Qaida related attacks last decade is worth recalling: after an initial negative impact share markets bounced back as it was clear that there would not be a major economic impact and it seemed the effect on markets weakened as the terror threat continued."
Dr Oliver anticipates the slide in Australian mining stocks, which suffered sharp declines last week, to continue.
The Australian dollar, too, could come back under pressure, after it rebounded last week on better-than-expected jobs data.
Madrid and London
The closest precedents to Friday's night's carnage across Paris are the Madrid train bombings in 2004, which claimed nearly 200 lives, and the London public transport bombings of 2005, in which more than 50 people died.
The Spanish and UK markets dropped 2.2 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively, immediately after those events, while relevant bond prices climbed.
European stock markets were already feeling the weight of weak global growth and commodity prices last week, with the French CAC 40 down 3.5 per cent over the five sessions.
UK and German stocks were also down heavily, while the pan-European EuroStoxx index lost 3 per cent for the week.
"I wouldn't be surprised to see markets down 2 per cent to 3 per cent – maybe even more," Yogi Dewan, chief executive of Hassium Asset Management of the UK, told Bloomberg at the weekend.
"Sectors will be impacted in Europe such as insurance, travel and leisure."
Expectations of an escalation of the war against Islamic State and related groups in Syria could also push up oil prices, which have been under extra pressure in recent days because of mounting stockpiles.
The gold price, too, is expected to trade higher this week, after it hit new lows last week.
Apart from the fall-out from Paris, the investor focus this week will be on the US Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting minutes, released early Thursday Australian time, for any additional clues on the timing of interest rate lift-off in the world's biggest economy.
At home, the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes from its last meeting will also be studied for direction on whether or not the central bank will continue to ease monetary policy.