THERE was no indication long range weather forecasting had failed in north-western NSW, Bureau of Meteorology climate prediction services manager Dr Andrew Watkins has said.
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He was responding to criticism from NSW Farmers vice-president Wayne Dunford who claimed many farmers no longer had confidence in bureau predictions.
Dr Watkins said north-west NSW had experienced a mix of average to slightly above and below average conditions.
"The bureau has predicted fairly well what has gone on during the year but that is not to say rain has not fallen in individual locations," he said.
"When working on seasonal outlooks we study a broad area. We would need to do a lot more work to go back to one particular town or district."
Dr Watkins said some people (concerned about weather forecasts) could be confusing El Nino conditions with seasonal outlook predictions.
"El Nino does tend to bring dry conditions to Eastern Australia but our outlook has not been for a classic El Nino pattern because we have a very warm Indian ocean," he said.
"El Nino tries to dry things and a warm Indian ocean tries to wet things. We have competing influences at the moment.
"During El Nino there are always going to be people who do better and people who do worse.
"That happens in any El Nino situation and we have the confounding situation of the Indian ocean as well."
Dr Watkins had no doubt some farmers had experienced very dry conditions because there had been three failed wet seasons, extending down to some parts of northern NSW.
"We haven't really had recovery since a bad wet season three years ago," he said.
"Part of the problem is that we don't have the moisture that is really needed to grow grass and crops.
"The soil is dry and we need a fair bit of catch up. There has been rain in some areas recently but the reality is that Queensland and parts of NSW need a wet season of really good rain. Likewise in Victoria in South Australia.
"Recent rain is not going to break the drought and people in the city need to understand that."
Dr Watkins said long range forecasters worked on an odds system, determined by all the factors driving climate in Australia.
He said the odds for north-western NSW were average to drier than average in the outlooks issued after May.
Conditions turned a little wetter in the August issued outlook and back to average to drier odds thereafter.
"But really it is the wet season periods - from October to April - that are important in this area," Dr Watkins said.
"Weather forecasting is about risk management and that is what farmers do every day of the week.
"Seasonal forecasts are quite different to weather forecasts. They give you odds to help you hedge one way or the other. Used over a long period of time you will come out ahead."
