Whitehaven's Narrabri Underground Mine is likely to be permitted to keep digging up coal until 2044, after a state government department recommended approving a plan to expand the mine this week.
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If approved, the project will be responsible for the highest volume of direct and indirect carbon emissions of any coal project determined by the Independent Planning Commission to date, according to opponents, Lock the Gate Alliance.
Opened in 2010 and located about 60 kilometres north-west of Gunnedah, the mine is currently scheduled to close in 2031. It employs about 520 people. In 2020, Whitehaven Coal applied to extend its life by 13 years.
The development application will be determined by the Independent Planning Commission, which will hold a public hearing on the project on February 14, 2022 by videoconference.
The NSW government's Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) recommended the commission give the Whitehaven Coal plan the green light, on Wednesday.
The department recommended slapping over 40 pages of conditions on the project, including 16 pages of environmental conditions alone. The DPIE report said emissions from the mine should be "minimised to the greatest extent practicable".
Fugitive emissions released during coal mining processes represent about a tenth of the state's overall contribution to climate change. The Narrabri Underground Mine would be Australia's fiftieth-largest single emitter.
Complaining of a lack of policy direction for reducing 'fugitive' greenhouse gas emissions from the mine in its report, DPIE recommended establishing a mechanism to independently review emissions and potentially ratchet them down over time, and to expand an independent government regulator to monitor the process.
But the commission determined that the project would provide a net benefit of about $599 million, accounting for environmental costs. The project would create about 13 new local jobs, and bring in about $65 million into the Gunnedah region.
DPIE noted that the mine "has been operating for over a decade ... with no major issues or complaints" and that the planned expansion involves "very limited changes to the mine's key surface facilities".
"There are very few community members in close proximity to the project area, i.e. only 20 residences within 5 km..." the commission said.
"However, the longwall panels would be some of the longest (10 km) and widest (400 m) in Australia. This would lead to relatively high levels of subsidence, a highly fractured zone above the mine workings, and associated impacts on water resources."
Both factors would require additional land clearing, DPIE said.
The commission also noted that the Narrabri mine is a "relatively 'gassy' mine", and as a result would generate more than a megaton of greenhouse gas emissions every year, largely as a result of fugitive methane emissions.
Lock the Gate spokesperson Georgina Woods said the minewould be responsible for nearly half a billion tonnes of carbon emissions, and likely cause a 10m drop in groundwater levels, hurting local farmers.
"This is clearly unacceptable at a time when the world desperately needs to reduce greenhouse gas pollution and avoid worsening the climate crisis," she said.
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Lock the Gate pointed to sections of the department's approval report as a "candid admission" that the state has no coherent policy to determine the acceptable impact of new coal mining projects on climate change.
DPIE noted that the state has no clear methodology to assess the relative scale or consequences of emissions, that NSW has not set emissions limits, that there is no clear guidance on how to assess potential techniques to mitigate emissions, no guidance on whether offsets should be required for a particular development and no formula to calculate the quantum how many should be required, among other oversights.
The group claimed the government had also questioned whether the project's purported economic benefits were accurate, in its report.
"The department has admitted that accurate economic costing of this climate change impact would reduce its purported benefits," Ms Woodssaid.
"By our calculation, if Whitehaven Coal had honestly assessed this issue, this coal mine would have a net negative impact on the economy of New South Wales."
DPIE recommended several environmental conditions for the mine approval designed to limit its fugitive greenhouse gas emissions.
The company will be required to develop a fugitive emissions minimisation plan, which will be reviewed every three years. It will also be subject to performance targets, and be required to pay for environmental offsets if they are not met.
The state government's existing independent mining panel will be expanded to provide advice on reducing the emissions.
The state government, which initially slammed Whitehaven coal's water modelling for the project, telling the Independent Planning Commission that "several issues have not been adequately or fully addressed" in the original Environmental Impact Statement for the project, approved an amended water plan.
The department's final report recommended that Whitehaven's water modelling be updated every three years, and said the mining company owned or could purchase sufficient water licences to supply itself.
The mine extension will create the equivalent of 13 new full time jobs and maintain 370 existing full time equivalent positions until mid-century.
The mine, which currently digs up about 11 million tonnes of coal a year, would not produce any additional coal per year as a result of the upgrade.
A spokesperson for Whitehaven Coal said the company is pleased the project has been recommended for approval "after more than a year of review".
The company said independent quantitative research showed that three in four residents of Narrabri agree that "mining jobs are essential for the economy,", the spokesperson said.
"As an extension to the life of one of the largest locally-based operations, local people know Narrabri stage three means a stronger future for our regions," she said.
"This project will extend the significant local and regional economic contribution this existing mine brings."
The Independent Planning Commission encouraged the public to have their say on the project.
Anyone who wants to have their say on the scheme at the its February public hearing should pre-register on the commission's website.
Written submissions will be accepted until 5pm on Monday 21 February 2022.
So far, most public submissions into the project backed the extension on the basis of its economic benefits.