Share markets got through the month of October largely unscathed.
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It can sometimes be a difficult month with several major market dramas happening then, for example the 1929 and 1987 crashes.
This year the All Ordinaries gained two per cent, though major overseas markets finished slightly down.
Most markets, Australia's included, started strongly but fell back later in the month as Covid case numbers continued to grow and lockdowns were reintroduced in several European countries to control the spread. It's these restrictions on normal business activity that worry investors.
Looking ahead, uncertainties dominate the short term. By the time you read this the US election will be over. A winner may be known but the contest appears very close so the result may be unclear for some time with postal votes still coming in. And will President Trump challenge the result if he loses?
Investors have been closely following the debate in the US Congress over a new support and stimulus package. If the Democrats win it should be approved quickly, will be welcomed, and will boost markets. If the Republicans win a much smaller support package is likely to be agreed and markets may fall.
The future path of the virus also creates uncertainties. The strong second wave in Europe and continuing high case numbers in the US may make a reversion to many more restrictions necessary. This is especially likely in the US if Joe Biden wins. Share markets won't like that.
While the outlook for November is unpredictable the prospects for December and onwards appear better. The period from December to February or March is often the strongest of the year. This time around we should see an effective Covid vaccine released.
More than fifty teams are working on a vaccine around the world. Some are bound to succeed. While different vaccines may vary in effectiveness they will all help bring the virus under control. They will also help reduce the fear of the virus which is half the battle.
One or more effective vaccines becoming widely available should see lockdowns and restrictions lifted which will be keenly welcomed by share markets and likely will lead to healthy gains.
The ultra-low interest rates will continue to be very helpful for businesses and for consumers inclined to spend. They will also continue to pressure conservative investors to move money from bank accounts into other assets. Shares will benefit and prices should rise.
The longer interest rates remain extremely low, the more people will be inclined to borrow to invest, giving all asset areas including shares a further boost.
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