Renowned ABC analyst Antony Green says Dubbo is a seat that is in play and could be taken from the National Party.

But, the bookies say the Nationals Dugald Saunders is a shoo-in and will win in a landslide.

The bookies are hardly ever wrong.

The Daily Liberal poll has Dugald Saunders at 29.41 per cent of the primary vote, followed by Labor's Stephen Lawrence at 29.08 per cent, then Independent candidate Mathew Dickerson at 28.01 per cent.

If our poll is accurate, then preferences would decide who becomes the next Member for Dubbo.

One more interesting aspect of the Daily Liberal poll is that One Nation polled 8.82 per cent without a registered candidate in the race.

One Nation polled ahead of the Shooters Fishers and Farmers' Lara Quealy (3.27 per cent) and The Greens' Rod Pryor (1.31 per cent).

The Nationals would be nervous if a One Nation candidate did run because the extreme right-wing party traditionally takes votes away from the National Party in any seat they run in.

Another way of looking at the Daily Liberal poll would be that if One Nation does not run that 8.82 per cent would go back to the Nationals and be more in-line with what the bookies are saying.

Sportsbet has the National's candidate Dugald Saunders at $1.01 to win. 

But they do not have a book on Mathew Dickerson which may suggest they have not looked closely at Dubbo when deciding their odds.

Sportsbet has Labor's Stephen Lawrence at $14 and the Greens' Rod Pryor at $51.

The election is on March 23.

Dugald Saunders respectfully declined to comment on our poll.

Stephen Lawrence said he had seen the Daily Liberal poll. 

"I am told that 300 people voted which in polling terms is a fairly large sample," he said.

"Of course polls which people choose to participate in rather than being randomly asked are generally not regarded as accurate. What is interesting about the poll is the consistency of the order of candidates over a reasonably extended period.

"What is also interesting is to compare Labor's Primary vote at last election with our result in this poll. What you see is about the swing that we might see statewide at the election according to opinion polls. 

"The poll would also suggest that the Independent's vote is coming almost exclusively from the National Party. While one has to be careful of the accuracy of such polls my gut tells me that in some respects it is probably quite accurate. That said, I think it probably significantly underrates the support in the electorate for the Shooters Fishers and Farmers' Lara Quealy."

Independent candidate Mathew Dickerson said he was also aware of the poll.

"There are are a lot of people that I talk to that say they will vote for me, but I am aware of being in a candidate bubble," he said.

"What I do know is that it will be close so I need as much support as I can get.

"This poll emphasis to me that if people want an independent  representative in parliament they need to support me on election day."