The government has confirmed Australia's greenhouse gas emissions are rising, and projected that it will not get near its 2030 climate target under current policies.
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But the country remains on track to "meet and beat" the less ambitious 2020 target of a 5 per cent cut in emissions compared to 2000 levels.
Released in the shadow of the Christmas holidays, the Environment Department greenhouse accounts show national emissions rose 0.8 per cent in the year to June. Here are the changes in emissions for the June quarter over the past decade:
The department analysis shows the increase largely came from electricity generation - the country used more power without much change in its reliance on fossil fuels - and new liquefied natural gas projects.
In per capita terms, emissions per person continued to fall - to less than 23 tonnes of carbon dioxide, down from about 26 tonnes a decade ago - as population growth outpaced the rise in pollution.
In terms of future emissions, the government continues to revise down projections. While they remain well above the 2030 target (a 26-28 per cent cut compared with 2005 levels), the gap has closed significantly in the past year.
Despite this, all parts of the economy are expected to have higher emissions in 2030 than in 2020. It is expected Australians will be using more electricity, more polluting transport and running larger agricultural herds to meet overseas demand.
National emissions in 2030 are projected to be 592 million tonnes - see the blue line below. Last year, they were projected to be 724 million tonnes (the red line below). But to meet the target they will need to be less than 450 million tonnes (the dotted lines below).
Australian Conservation Foundation economist Matt Rose said the government was failing to cut climate pollution, and was holding back evidence of its poor performance from the public.
Documents released to the foundation after a Freedom of Information request showed it had been sitting on the data since September, but chose to release it just three days before Christmas.
"If the Government is so embarrassed by the results it should improve its policies," he said.
But Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg said Australia was on target to beat its 2020 target and had made significant process in reaching the 2030 target.
He said Australia's per capita emissions and emissions per unit of GDP were at their lowest level in 27 years.
"Our policies, like the emissions reduction fund, are working to reduce Australia's emissions at low cost, without driving up the price of electricity like Labor's carbon tax did," he said.
Labor climate spokesman Mark Butler said the greenhouse results under Malcolm Turnbull were worse than those under "known climate sceptic" Tony Abbott.
The report notes that emissions projections are inherently uncertain, and the uncertainty becomes greater the further you go into the future. Australia's emissions projections have become lower year on year, often due to businesses and households outstripping Canberra in embracing cleaner practice.
They are certain to change again. Current projections do not factor in policies that are yet to be fully introduced but have been flagged, including a national energy productivity plan to improve efficiency, a program to cut emissions from cars and state renewable energy targets.
The government is reviewing climate policies next year, but has already ruled out any form of carbon pricing that would penalise big emitters.
Business and environment groups are urging the government to keep all options, including a form of carbon pricing known as an emission intensity scheme, open to ensure cuts are made as cheaply as possible.
