Blood from the Orange byelection is still in the water and is set to pose on-going risks for the NSW Coalition government.
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Certainly the Opposition has the scent. The Country Labor conference at the weekend identified weak spots for the government – issues which could give Labor greater traction in seats that are traditionally strongholds for the NSW Nationals.
Opposition Leader Luke Foley named forced council mergers, changes to TAFE and job cuts at Essential Energy in the regions as key areas that could be exploited. He cast promises of changes – if Labor gained power – around those issues.
That is to be expected from an opposition party.
Labor candidates might not win, but they could do damage – particularly in preference deals with minor parties or independents, who also smell blood.
Minor parties and independents can exploit the voter anger shown in the Orange electorate and the serious disaffection with major parties demonstrated by Donald Trump’s triumph in the US.
The forced council mergers, including in the Cabonne and Orange local government areas, was a key issue in the Nationals’ loss along with the on-off greyhound racing ban. Voter anger is unlikely to dissipate quickly.
Besides losing the electorate, the Nationals lost Dubbo MP Troy Grant as leader and Adrian Piccoli as his deputy.
New leader John Barilaro met anti-merger residents in Orange. He has not ruled out taking a stand against the amalgamation. But, he has made no commitment either way – a politician’s bob-each-way stance so far.
The issue, although about Orange seat LGAs, reaches wider. What about other incomplete mergers? What is the policy there? What about LGAs already merged – but unhappy?
If he backs down in one Nationals electorate, what about the rest? And then there’s government and Coalition unity to consider.
Nationals and their supporters might look at a recent poll, which shows Premier Mike Baird’s government has bounced back to re-establish a solid 53 to 47 per cent two-party preferred lead over Labor, and wonder why they appear to have paid the price.
Mr Barilaro has yet to announce a plan on the Nationals’ direction under his leadership. He will need to do so soon if he hopes to start turning his party’s fortunes around.