The NSW Nationals are poised to elect Skills and Small Business Minister John Barilaro as their third leader and deputy premier in just over two years following Troy Grant's dramatic resignation after the party's disastrous showing in Saturday's Orange byelection.
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But government sources are indicating the change is unlikely to spark a full cabinet reshuffle before Christmas.
The preference is understood to be for Mr Grant's replacement to be installed with minimal or no changes to cabinet before a considered reshuffle in early 2017.
Mr Barilaro, who was doing the numbers on Sunday, has yet to formally announce he will be a candidate for the leadership after Mr Grant said he would step down at a party meeting on Tuesday.
However, Barwon MP Kevin Humphries told Fairfax Media he would not contest, leaving Mr Barilaro as the frontrunner.
Mr Grant announced on Monday he will quit as leader of the NSW Nationals leader and deputy Premier, a day before facing a spill motion in his party room.
Shortly afterwards, Education Minister Adrian Piccoli said he would not recontest the position of deputy leader of the Nationals, leaving that position also up for grabs.
Among the names being mentioned are Primary Industries Minister Niall Blair.
Mr Grant's leadership had been under enormous pressure after the Orange byelection, which saw a record 34 per cent swing against the Nationals candidate on the primary vote.
With some postal votes still to be counted, on Monday night the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party candidate Phil Donato held a lead of just 204 votes over the Nationals' Scott Barrett.
In a statement on Monday, Mr Grant said it had been "an incredible privilege to serve in that role and lead a team whose sole focus is to serve the people of regional NSW".
"I hope that through my actions the NSW government is given the opportunity to pause and reset the way it is seen to be governing and our record of delivery can once more be front and centre," he said.
Premier Mike Baird described Mr Grant as "a courageous and passionate advocate for regional NSW. Troy is a man of great integrity and it has been an honour to lead this government together."
But Coffs Harbour MP Andrew Fraser, who had planned to put the spill motion on Tuesday, said Mr Grant had "done what he should have done".
Mr Fraser said he would support Mr Barilaro to become the new leader.
Mr Humphries – another of Mr Grant's critics – also welcomed the decision.
"I think he's done the right thing," he said.
"The general public and certainly the broader community had tuned out as far as the leadership of the Nationals was concerned.
"That position was potentially not recoverable. We're better off dealing with these issues now than kicking them down the road."
The result in Orange is being blamed on a combination of factors, including the controversial move to close the greyhound industry – later reversed – and the forced amalgamation of local councils.
But Mr Grant's critics, including Mr Fraser and Mr Humphries, had argued the Nationals had lost touch with their constituents under Mr Grant's leadership.
