When Troy Grant was re-elected for a second term as the Member for Dubbo in March 2015, he was on top of the world.
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He did so with 60 per cent of the primary vote, led a National Party that won 18 of the 20 seats it contested and was proving an able deputy for popular Premier Mike Baird.
How quickly things can change. Just 18 months later, Mr Grant may face a challenge to remain as leader of the party he loves.
He has just seen a 35 per cent swing against the Nationals in the seat of Orange, which was comfortably won by Andrew Gee in the 2015 election.
It is looking increasingly likely that Nationals candidate Scott Barrett will lose the seat to Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party candidate Philip Donato.
The result is unlikely to be decided until Thursday, when absentee and postal votes can be counted and preferences sorted.
However, the Nationals have experienced a 35 per cent swing against them in first preferences and a number of parties including the Shooters and Labor took a “put Nationals last” approach to preferences.
But, even if by some miracle the Nationals hang on, party figures are asking serious questions about the direction it has taken.
The popularity the Nationals enjoyed has disappeared after a series of unpopular decisions including forced council mergers and a ban on greyhound racing.
The government has since announced it will overturn the ban, such was the outcry against it, but hasn’t yet removed the legislation to outlaw the sport on July 1, 2017.
It was hoped the backflip would be enough to save Orange for the Nationals and ensure they remained the only party to hold it since World War 2. It appears it was too little, too late.
Speculation began last month if Orange was lost Mr Grant’s leadership would come under serious pressure.
Coffs Harbour MP Andrew Fraser has indicated he will move a leadership spill at a party meeting this week and Barwon MP Kevin Humphries said Mr Grant will have to do some serious explaining if he wants to keep his role.
Mr Grant says he intends to remain leader. Other names have been floated. Some senior figures say the numbers aren’t there for a change.
The pressure is on for the Nationals to ease back on support for Baird policies regional voters oppose.