Sydney's fringe has turned from blue to red.

The electorates of Macarthur, Macquarie and Lindsay, which encircle the city's west and south-west perimeter deserted the Coalition on Saturday. The last time those three seats changed hands simultaneously was back in 1996 when John Howard swept to power. That success helped give rise to a new category of voter: Howard's battlers.

Like America's "Regan Democrats", Howard's battlers have always been a tricky group to define. But whoever they are – or were – they shunned Malcolm Turnbull on Saturday.

So what's changed?

The electorate of Macarthur – which takes in Camden and Campbelltown – has been held by the Liberals since the Howard government won office 20 years ago but it fell the Labor on Saturday after a surprise 12 per cent swing. The new member for Macarthur, local paediatrician Mike Freelander, said voter concerns health and education services were decisive. But many voters were angry about the way former Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, was dumped last year in favour of Turnbull.

"People here didn't like Malcolm Turnbull particularly because he rolled Tony Abbott," says Freelander. "They liked Tony Abbott in many ways."

The Abbott government's 2015 budget targeted tradesman and other small business owners in places such as western Sydney with a generous tax break for business-related purchases. But Freelander insists Turnbull's electoral pitch didn't resonate with "Tony's tradies".

"The Liberal party portrayed itself as giving tax cuts to the big end of town," he said. "The majority of people out here don't earn anywhere near the money that is going to get a tax cut."

Deeper economic and demographic factors have also been at work on Sydney's west fringe.

Terry Rawnsley, an economist with SGS Economics and Planning, said rapid population growth in the 20 years since John Howard means there's now greater social and cultural diversity in outer west and south western electorates.

"The DNA of those areas has changed a lot over that time," said "Places that have had a large addition of new people tend to swing more [at elections]."

Sydney's economy has also been transformed since John Howard won office. Since the mid-1990s, manufacturing's share of the Sydney economy has slumped from 14 per cent to around 5 per cent, with much of the decline in western Sydney. Meanwhile, knowlege-based industries, based mostly in the east of the city, have boomed. Employment growth has recently been slower in western Sydney than in the city's eastern knowledge-job hubs, especially in and around the CBD.

While Sydney's economy has done well over the past few years, those in the far west and south-west have not benefited as much as other parts of the city.

Freelander said many voters in the Macarthur electorate told him they were under financial pressure.

"People aren't stupid, they know their standard of living is going down," he said. "Their wages aren't going up much, if at all. They are feeling threatened"

Freelander also said the Coalition's attack on Labor's negative gearing policy failed to cut through.

"Housing affordability for many of the Howard battler's kids is a problem," he said.

"They told me time and time again 'We've got a house but we worry about how our kids are going to afford to get a house. Housing affordability was a big issue here."

Professor Phillip O'Neill, director of the Centre for Western Sydney at Western Sydney University, said the lifestyle advantages of living in outer urban areas have been eroded.

"Access from those areas back into places of employment has become very difficult," he said. "People who were prepared to trade off the advantages of an edge-of-urban lifestyle for a longer commute are now really pressured in terms of both time and cost. For many, the promise of the good life just hasn't been rewarded over the past decade."

Professor O'Neill said the Turnbull government's key election message was "not very material" to the lives of people in the outer areas of Sydney.

"Perhaps the Coalition's 'jobs and growth' slogan reinforced for people that getting access to jobs is increasingly difficult," he said.

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